Russia recently launched 16 satellites as part of its ambitious Rassvet program on July 19, but they are already falling short of their operational target altitude of 870 kilometers. This is no small detail; satellites that operate at lower altitudes encounter increased atmospheric drag, which leads to quicker fuel depletion and shorter lifespans. So, what does this mean? Simply put, these satellites may not endure as long as Russia had originally hoped, even if they manage to stabilize.
Now, satellite internet plays a crucial role in how both Russia and Ukraine conduct their ongoing conflict. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, the situation has escalated dramatically. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) has verified at least 16,874 civilian deaths and 51,173 injuries by the end of July. In a report published on August 13, they pointed out that July 2023 was the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since March 2022, with at least 437 killed and 2,610 injured. This spike can be linked to increased aerial bombardments, glide bomb strikes, and relentless missile and drone attacks on cities far removed from the front lines.
The ability to direct strikes over increased distances with greater precision is critical. Earlier this year, Russia’s defense ministry confirmed that Starlink terminals, which were being used illegally by Russian forces, had been disabled after Kyiv and SpaceX took action to move to a “whitelist.” This means Russia’s reliance on alternative satellite networks is more crucial than ever. But here’s the kicker: experts suggest that Russia may not have been ready to accelerate the deployment of its satellite constellation at this pace, which could lead to further delays.
To achieve a reliable connection, Russian officials have stated that they would need between 200 and 250 satellites in orbit. However, that target seems far out of reach for the time being. The bottleneck in Russia’s satellite deployment largely stems from its dependence on the Soyuz-2.1b rocket, which is both a costly and scarce asset. According to reports, they can only launch a maximum of 128 Rassvet satellites every four years, which puts them at a significant disadvantage in terms of delivering effective strikes in Ukraine.
In a surprising twist, Ukrainian forces launched a counter-strike against the Progress Space Rocket Center, which manufactures Soyuz vehicles, just hours between August 14 and 15. They even attempted to strike the Plesetsk Cosmodrome on August 23, just two days before Russia was set to launch a Soyuz-2.1b vehicle that allegedly carried a GLONASS-K1 satellite, part of Russia’s navigation system. This ongoing tug-of-war over satellite capabilities not only threatens Russia but also could significantly amplify the lethality of its military operations against Ukraine.
With the stakes this high, it’s hard to imagine what the future holds. Will Russia manage to stabilize its satellite program, or will these setbacks lead to a significant shift in the dynamics of the conflict? Only time will tell.
Kaynak: Orijinal Haber