Venezuela is gearing up for an unprecedented debt restructuring, with estimates revealing a staggering debt of nearly 240 billion dollars. This figure significantly exceeds the previous market expectations of 150 to 200 billion dollars. The report, uncovered by the Financial Times, positions Caracas on the verge of the largest debt restructuring in history, even surpassing Greece’s historic default back in 2012. This move comes on the heels of a political shakeup in the nation, following the capture of Nicolás Maduro last January. Interim president Delcy Rodríguez has taken charge with a clear mission in mind: to negotiate a deal with creditors before the year wraps up and to re-enter international markets, which Venezuela has been excluded from for almost a decade now.
According to the British daily, US bank Centerview Partners, which has been appointed as an adviser, is currently finalizing a viability plan expected to be published in early July. But before that, Caracas is set to unveil a dismal macroeconomic framework later this month, revealing an economy that has shrunk to about 100 billion dollars. This is a stark contrast to the impressive 370 billion dollars recorded during Hugo Chávez’s final year in office in 2012. One detail, however, is raising eyebrows: unlike previous major restructurings, the sustainability analysis of this situation does not include the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) endorsement. This lack of support is already causing concern among the Venezuelan opposition, who fear the nation may find itself in an even more precarious position with its creditors.
The IMF has maintained a distance, clarifying that while it’s not actively participating in the restructuring process, it has resumed technical contact with Caracas since last April after a seven-year hiatus. The bulk of this debt consists of sovereign bonds and obligations from the state oil company PDVSA, which account for around 60 billion dollars. Additionally, there’s a whopping 40 billion dollars owed in interest arrears since the default, plus debts to oil companies and suppliers, claims related to expropriations from the Chávez era, and outstanding loans from China and Russia.
For investors watching closely, the pressing question isn’t just the headline figure but the future of oil revenues. The central bank reported that first-quarter oil revenues hit 5.5 billion dollars, showing a slight improvement compared to the last stretch of the Maduro administration, but still a far cry from pre-sanction levels. This ongoing situation has led to widespread skepticism; many doubt that an agreement will be reached in 2026, with most eyes already set on 2027.
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Kaynak: Orijinal Haber