Etiket: petrol fiyatları

The price of oil has slipped back to levels that haven’t been seen since before the Iran war, as traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route begins to pick up again. Just recently, the global benchmark Brent crude fell below $72.48 a barrel, the rate it was at the day before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28. It saw a slight rise to $72.63 afterward. Energy prices have been on a rollercoaster ride since Iran reacted to the strikes by closing the strait, a crucial passageway for oil and gas shipments.

Now, if we rewind to June 17, when the US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), we can see a clear drop in crude prices since then. This deal established a 60-day negotiation window to improve communication lines in Tehran and prevent misunderstandings, according to mediators Qatar and Pakistan. It’s kinda wild how much oil prices have come down, but at the gas pump, we’re not seeing the same relief. The prices at the pump aren’t reflecting the drop in crude prices, which is a bit concerning for everyday folks filling their tanks.

The fluctuations are stark: there’s been a “tremendous gouging,” as some experts put it, with prices not moving in sync with crude oil, which has largely remained unchanged between February and March. So, what’s in it for Iran and the US with this deal? And why might both parties struggle to keep it? It’s a complex dance, folks, and one that could have ripple effects on our wallets.

In a nutshell, we’re looking at a situation where oil prices are dropping significantly, yet the savings aren’t trickling down to consumers just yet. The way things are going, it makes you wonder how long it will take for this to catch up. Will we eventually see lower prices at the pump? Or will the big players continue to keep us guessing? Only time will tell…

Kaynak: Orijinal Haber

More than three months after the US and Israel first began their war with Iran, the White House and the Iranian regime have agreed on a framework deal aimed at establishing a longer-term resolution to the conflict. This Middle East crisis has sent global oil prices skyrocketing, effectively closing one of the world’s crucial water transport routes for oil, liquefied natural gas, and other essential commodities, which in turn has curtailed global supplies. But hold on a second—experts are warning that it might take some time before shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, and the fallout from the war is expected to impact the global economy for potentially months to come.

“Let the oil flow!” exclaims US President Donald Trump in a social media post celebrating the agreement, which he claims will include reopening the strait for commercial shipping. “Ships are starting to move,” Trump declared later on Monday, “loaded up with oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz,” which he described as “totally safe, secure, and pristine.” However, BBC Verify has been checking ship-tracking data, and it appears that traffic levels remain low in the Strait of Hormuz, despite the announcement. In fact, according to the ship tracking website MarineTraffic, only two vessels with active location trackers have exited the waterway since Sunday—a bulk carrier and a tanker.

Now, the Strait has been practically shut off to most shipping traffic since February 28, with only a handful of vessels friendly to Iran able to pass through. Hundreds of ships have been stranded in the Gulf, facing risks like sea mines or drone strikes, which have raised the stakes for crews and made safe passage a challenge. Neil Shearing, group chief economist for Capital Economics, said it remains to be seen whether this latest deal represents a fragile truce or a more durable settlement. He added that it would likely take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to pre-war levels.

Even if ships now have safe passage, tankers are in the wrong place, oil production and refining facilities need to ramp up to full capacity, and there are still concerns about the cost and availability of insurance for ships traversing the Strait. Before the agreement was even reached, during the ongoing ceasefire, shipping companies were generally hesitant to move their vessels out of the strait. Getting those ships out will be their first priority. Take Denmark’s Maersk, the world’s second-largest shipping line, for instance—it has five ships stuck in the Gulf due to the conflict. They mentioned it’s too early to assess how the agreement will impact logistics, and for now, there’s nothing changing in their operations in the region.

On the other side of the aisle, German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd has four ships trapped in the strait and is hoping to get them out over the weekend once the deal is signed and any remaining mines are cleared. Normally, about a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies flow through the strait, and the effective standstill in traffic has pushed oil prices higher. This has had a cascading effect on petrol, diesel, and jet fuel costs. During the conflict, the price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, shot up to around $120 a barrel, while before the hostilities erupted, it hovered just below $70. After the news of the framework deal broke, Brent dropped to $83.55 a barrel.

Now, President Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen once the “deal” is signed on Friday. Senior energy strategist at Rabobank, Florence Schmit, noted that there’s a “strong possibility that we’ll see a lot of volatility” leading up to the deal’s signing. “Some things are not confirmed on both sides—important things: we don’t know if the deal will be signed,” she told the BBC, adding, “What we’ve seen so far is a deal for 60 days for the opening of the Strait—but what happens after that? What if the Iranians want to re-insert a toll system?” A full-scale peace agreement could still be a long way off.

Despite this uncertainty, Schmit mentioned that normalcy in the system, including prices, “could return by the end of the year” if a full ceasefire is agreed upon. Normalcy would mean the return of pre-war levels of 26 daily crude oil tankers going through the strait. Given the current positive media headlines and what she described as a “sentiment-driven” sell-off, there’s a chance prices might dip below $80 a barrel, but they could average in the mid-$80s by year-end once “the geopolitics is stripped out” and the market assesses the reality of the situation.

As for global food prices, there could also be relief if fertilizer supplies get closer to normal levels again. Fertilizer—a by-product of oil—has skyrocketed in price, putting immense pressure on farmers. Yara, one of the world’s largest fertilizer and crop firms, said the situation remains uncertain, and farmers may “require targeted support to manage ongoing volatility” in the short term. Maurizio Carulli, a global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot, suggested that the ceasefire “should help ease the immediate pressure on fertilizer markets,” but warned it won’t be instantaneous.

He pointed out that roughly one-third of traded fertilizer and significant volumes of natural gas used for nitrogen-based fertilizers flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and “lingering damage to energy infrastructure” will take time to mend. Plus, the crop season has already begun in several regions worldwide, so the resumption of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer deliveries may come too late for agricultural crops, negatively impacting global produce.

Meanwhile, jet fuel—another oil by-product—traded in Northwest Europe (NWE) has already seen a slight decline in price. NWE jet fuel is now down to $1,033 per tonne, compared to $831 per tonne before the conflict and around $1,840 at its peak. The Iran war has affected economies worldwide, as the spike in energy costs has driven fuel prices up, leading to increased inflation. This has pressured central banks to raise interest rates to keep inflation in check.

In the UK, prior to the war’s onset, the Bank of England was widely expected to cut interest rates this year. But those predictions quickly shifted as energy costs surged, with the bank now anticipated to hold rates steady, if not increase them later in the year. Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, mentioned that just last week, markets were pricing in two rate hikes by early 2027. The probabilities have since shifted to a single rate hike by December and potentially no changes for at least the first half of 2027. This could mean companies will have greater confidence to hire more people, consumers might be more inclined to spend, and the property market could start to warm up after going cold for sellers in recent months.

So, what’s the bottom line here? President Trump says the US and Iran have struck a deal to end the war, but it remains unclear what’s been decided regarding Iran’s nuclear program. When the conflict kicked off on February 28, fuel costs surged as the war disrupted energy production and transportation across the Middle East. As we keep our eyes on the developments, let’s see what unfolds next…

Kaynak: Orijinal Haber

Oil prices have taken a nosedive on the back of optimism surrounding a potential deal that might put an end to the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump made waves by announcing that an agreement with Tehran was “largely negotiated,” hinting that details would soon be revealed. But hold on—just a day later, he urged his negotiating team not to rush into finalizing anything. Talk about mixed signals!

This Monday morning, as the sun rose in Asia, global oil benchmark Brent saw a drop of 5%, landing at $98.36 (£57.10). Over in the US market, crude oil was down by 5.3%, sitting at $91.50. Now, why does this matter? Well, Trump has previously mentioned that this deal could involve reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that usually sees about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) flow through it. Since the conflict flared up on February 28, this vital route has been effectively shut down.

Trump took to social media on Saturday, claiming he had a “very good call” with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and others, discussing a “Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE.” He stated, “An agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed.” He also mentioned having a fruitful chat with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but kept the specifics of the deal under wraps. However, Trump did assure that any agreement would “absolutely” stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

But here’s the kicker: on Sunday, he cautioned on Truth Social that “Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes!” Now, that raises eyebrows, doesn’t it? Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said earlier that US and Iranian positions had been getting closer in the past week. However, he warned that this doesn’t guarantee agreements on key issues, even accusing the Americans of making “contradictory statements.”

Since early March, global energy markets have faced wild price fluctuations after Iran threatened to retaliate against ships using the Strait of Hormuz due to US and Israeli attacks. Things got heated as Tehran also targeted Israel and US-aligned states in the Gulf, like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE. A ceasefire was reached in early April, and since then, there have been discussions between Washington and Tehran about a long-term peace deal.

Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, said, “There is now some light at the end of the tunnel, which will bring some near-term oil price relief.” But don’t get too excited just yet! Even in the best-case scenario, oil markets are expected to remain tight until 2027, given the time needed to normalize oil flows through the Strait, repair damaged facilities, and rebuild global oil stocks that have seen record depletion since the conflict began.

Meanwhile, UK and US energy and financial markets are taking a breather today due to public holidays. And get this—the Moroccan government is looking to attract more Western holidaymakers to its claimed territory. The deal being discussed might involve a 60-day ceasefire extension, during which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, according to US media reports.

As for the broader implications, Millers Oils, a company that has been in the oil blending and lubricants game since 1877, is keeping an eye on these developments. Remember Sunil Puniya? He was on his first sea job when a missile struck the oil tanker Skylight at the start of the Iran war. That’s a story for another day, but the uncertainty surrounding access to RAF Fairford has led to event cancellations as the conflict continues.

What’s next in this unfolding saga? With so many moving parts, it’s hard to say, but we’ll keep you updated as this story develops.

Kaynak: Orijinal Haber